World Colleges Information

1.Genesis:

(*)  Integration means bringing together different components of a system for effective synergistic operation and impact. This is mostly required for Indian weather forecast system being given by different organizations under different spatial and temporal modes.

(*)  The insight examination of the sources of different weather forecast especially rainfall, which is important for crop production, reveals that now casting (an hour lead time forecast), Short range forecast (a lead time of one day with an out look of another one day), and Long range forecast (a lead time of more than 10 days to a season) are given by India Meteorological Department (IMD), while Medium range forecast (a lead time of 3 to 10 days) is given by National Center

(*)  For Medium Range Weather Forecast(NCMRWF), New Delhi and Seasonal Climate Forecast(SCF) with a lead time of a season is given by Department of Agricultural Meteorology, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University(TNAU). In addition, one or two organizations from Ban galore also provide long range forecast information for south west monsoon season.

(*)  This brings to highlight that three major organizations do this assignment of rainfall forecasting with different modes of communication to the users/clients. As a result, the users could not use the weather information rightly for their and National development.

(*)  The reasons are known but nothing could be done to improve the status. Among the three organizations indicated elsewhere, both NCMRWF and TNAU have their own channel of communicating weather information systematically to the users especially farmers.

(*)  Though India has such four weather forecast information, the lacunae are non-coordination between these three organizations in delivering the messages to the farmers at right time and also not delivering through single window. Each organization has its own way of providing information to the users independently. Hence addressing seasonal rainfall for effective farm decision is thus absent in India.

2.What should be done?

Four activities must be carried out; with out any more loss of time for efficient weather forecast system and they are;

1. Single window must be identified to disseminate nowcast, short range, medium range and seasonal climate information to the farmers. This may be done either by IMD or NCMRWF or concerned State Agricultural University,
2. For carrying out this exercise all the three organizations must work together with close understanding and co-operation,
3. Educating farmers on weather consciousness and using valuable information     effectively, and
4. Identification of selected mass media for communication.

3.Procedure for communicating weather information:

1. For each agroclmtic zone a separate agency may be identified and all forecast information must be given to the farmers through this single window as indicated here under. The existing window in India is NCMRWF, which has strong communication channel and this mode  may be used for this purpose.
2. Through this window, first the weather information from long range and seasonal climate forecast must be given to the farmers. This will help the farmers to take farm decision on crops to be selected, area to be brought under crops during the season and best bet technology to be selected and it’s tailoring. Further, this will help the farmer to procure required input for the ensuing season and also to facilitate farmer to arrange for loan. Comprehensively the National Government can decide the policy of export and import based on the seasonal forecast cropping programe.
3. Secondly, after giving long range forecast information, the information from medium range weather forecast must be given to farmers through the same window continuously to take farm decision on preparing the field for sowing, organizing laborers, pest and disease management, preparing contingency plan to meet both benevolent and malevolent weather situations and farm operations which require 3 to 4 days advance time for pro action planning.
4. Thirdly, the information from short range may be given to take farm decision on sowing, irrigation scheduling, weeding, fertilizer application, plant protection, harvesting etc,
5. Fourthly the farmers may use the now casting information for mid term correction of their farm operations proposed.

In this way all the forecast information must reach through single window to the farmers one by one with in an agricultural season.

4.Benefits of this integrated weather forecast system

1. Aids for comprehensive farm decisions
2. Macro and micro level decisions with in time and avoiding belated farm operations.
3. Opportunity for enhancing input efficiency
4. Chance for reducing cost of cultivation
5. Sustainable agriculture and negligible yield loss
6. Introduction of weather based agriculture, which is mostly required for countries with monsoon rainfall like India.

5.Accuracy of weather forecast:

Presently rainfall forecast is prepared based on Numerical Weather Prediction model, and hence it requires smoothening for local condition so as to develop confidence with the farmer. For this purpose the information on local climatology, indigenous knowledge that prevails in the region and astrological information may be blended with the model input.

6.Conclusion:

There is a scope for integrated weather forecast in India in the coming years and let us hope for that. This concept of integration must be introduced with due participation of the farmers/clients. Farmers must be trained for weather consciousness and it’s application in agriculture.